The March 2025 increase responded to 10.1% headline inflation and elevated expectations among households and businesses. The decision repriced local-currency funding as the regulator sought a renewed disinflation path.
On 20 March 2025, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan raised its policy rate by 50 basis points, from 13.5% to 14%. The regulator tightened monetary conditions in response to persistent inflation pressure, strong aggregate demand and a rise in inflation expectations.
Headline inflation reached 10.1% year on year in February. Household inflation expectations stood at 15.3% and business expectations at 13.8%, while price pressure was visible across fuel, utilities, transport, education and medical services. Remittances and consumer lending were also supporting demand.
At the decision date, the Bank expected year-end inflation of 7–8%; that range was a forecast, not a realized outcome. For markets, the increase raised the local risk-free reference, affected bank funding and lending economics, and reinforced the need to use higher nominal and real discount rates in UZS valuations.
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