Uzbekistan’s Central Bank kept its policy rate at 14%, citing persistent price pressures and rapid domestic-demand growth. It expects year-end inflation of 6.5% and GDP growth of 7.5–8% in 2026. The rate environment keeps local-currency funding selective even as strong growth creates new issuance opportunities.
The Central Bank’s Board decided on 29 July to keep the policy rate at 14% per annum. The regulator said tight monetary conditions remain necessary because disinflation has slowed, domestic demand is expanding rapidly and the second-round effects of energy-tariff adjustments may continue to influence prices.
Headline inflation reached 6.4% year on year in June, while core inflation remained broadly unchanged at 5.7%. At the same time, Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 8.5% in the first half of 2026, supported by consumer activity, investment demand and continuing capital inflows.
The Bank retained its year-end inflation forecast at 6.5% and now expects full-year economic growth of around 7.5–8%. Its next policy-rate review is scheduled for 16 September, with inflation expectations, domestic demand and external financing conditions remaining central to the outlook. For issuers, the 14% policy rate remains a central reference for coupon setting, tenor and refinancing economics. Investors will weigh the available real yield against the pace of disinflation, exchange-rate dynamics and the durability of domestic demand.
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