Following 8.7% GDP growth in the first quarter, the Central Bank revised its full-year growth forecast to 7–7.5% while maintaining an end-2026 inflation projection of about 6.5%. Stronger growth supports earnings and issuance activity, while restrictive rates remain a financing constraint.
Strong domestic demand, higher investment and robust services, construction and trade activity lifted real GDP by 8.7% in Q1 2026. Against that backdrop, the Central Bank increased its annual growth forecast from the earlier baseline to a range of 7–7.5%.
Annual inflation eased to 7.1% in March and core inflation stood at 5.7%, although the regulator said underlying pressures remained elevated. Its outlook balances stronger foreign-exchange supply from exports and remittances against geopolitical, energy, food-price and logistics risks; end-year inflation is projected at around 6.5%.
Banks and issuers should therefore test cash flows against high real rates as well as foreign-exchange, energy-price and logistics shocks. Investors will need to distinguish headline nominal growth from companies able to protect margins and convert expansion into cash generation.
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